Price forecasting

Forecast market prices for consulting clients: lumber, aggregates and construction materials, wholesale power, natural gas and fuels, metals, ags, and FX-driven import costs. Trigger on: "forecast the price of X", "what will lumber/power/gas/steel cost next quarter", "build a procurement price forecast", "quantify our budget risk on diesel", "PPA capture price analysis", "should we trust the futures curve", "when should we hedge". Covers method selection with reasons, the futures-curve default and its risk-premium bias, OU/VECM/regime/GARCH calibration with worked numbers, supply-stack fundamentals for power, vintage-data discipline for ML features, decile deliverables, a…