Use when: (1) Competing in Kaggle simulation competitions (PTCG, Orbit Wars, etc.)
where agents are rated by TrueSkill Bayesian scoring, (2) Your LB score swings
±200 points day-to-day with no code changes, (3) You're tempted to re-submit
frequently to "test" improvements, (4) You see identical agents scoring 150-400
points differently. Key lessons: re-submitting resets μ to 600 (destroys
convergence), only latest 2 submissions count for final, the optimal endgame
strategy is "submit your best agent's duplicate copies near deadline" to
high-roll the Bayesian lottery. Validated across 8+ PTCG submissions + forum
consensus from rank 4-9 players.
