Use when about to emit a warning, flag, or alert for a LOW-confidence issue — the alert-fatigue / signal-credibility discipline. False alarms have an asymmetric cost: after repeated low-confidence warnings, the operator stops reading the channel, and the one true warning gets ignored. Fires on choosing a log level (warn vs info vs error), inflating a PR title/commit to "CRITICAL", marking speculative concerns as ⚠️ risks, or surfacing so many maybe-problems in a review that the real one drowns. Anti-pattern handle for defensive over-flagging.
